Jan 13 – We reported yesterday that the 17 largest cities are now all moving in favor of sellers. The last hold out – Goodyear – changed direction on December 26
Looking at the secondary cities, we still have a handful of cities moving in favor of buyers. These are Arizona City, Laveen and Sun Lakes. The latter’s difficulty is surprising given that its main neighbor Chandler is one of the fastest movers in favor of sellers at the moment.
To compensate for these 3, we have 3 secondary cities that are moving very quickly in favor of sellers. These three are Apache Junction, Anthem and Litchfield Park.
Jan 12 – Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This has been another week in which the balance in the market moved strongly in favor of sellers. The average change in the CMI over the past month is 22%, up from 21% last week.
Paradise Valley continues to improve for sellers at a rapid rate. Its supply index is down from 52.1 to 43.2 and its demand index is up from 57.6 to 73.2. So demand is still well below normal, but supply is below normal to a far greater degree. Surprisingly, the average $/SF in PV is already starting to rise, across active, under-contract, and even closed listings.
Also improving fast for sellers are Chandler, Mesa, Avondale – all up 39% or more for the last month. These are leading the charge.
Above 20%, we have Phoenix, Tempe and Glendale, while Peoria, Gilbert, Cave Creek, Queen Creek, Surprise, Fountain Hills and Buckeye are above 10%.
Scottsdale, Maricopa and Goodyear are below 10% but all improving, unlike last week when Goodyear was still going backwards.
Remember that the Cromford® Market Index is the earliest of leading indicators. It tends to go down before most people expect it to and it goes back up before people think it should. It can be up to a month before other market indicators follow suit. For example, last year it peaked on February 7 and started to weaken. During the bubble years, it reached an all time low of 26.5 on November 6, 2007 and then rose very slowly over the following 2 years, not exceeding 100 until May 2009.
Among the 17 largest cities we see 6 currently in a buyer’s market below 90, 4 balanced between 90 and 110, and 7 in a seller’s market over 110.
Loan officers nationwide report that new mortgage applications are rising in volume. This could have something to do with the fact that typical 30 year fixed mortgage rates have dropped by 0.5% since the start of the year.
The time may soon come to replace skepticism with hope. Despair is so 2022, and no longer fashionable.
